On the finish of 2024, the worldwide cell subscription whole stood at 8.8 billion, in accordance with figures from our GlobalComms Database. That is up from 8.7 billion a 12 months earlier and eight.5 billion at end-2022.
Ten years in the past, the full was nearer to 7.0 billion; on the finish of 2004, it was simply 1.7 billion.
TeleGeography expects the full variety of cell subscriptions to achieve 9.7 billion by the top of 2030, spurred by the adoption of 5G expertise.
The top-2024 determine labored out to a inhabitants penetration of 109%. Europe had the best penetration at end-2024 with a price of 140%, adopted by the U.S. & Canada with 124%. The Center East, Asia, and Latin America had been all near the worldwide common of 109%, whereas Oceania and Africa path with penetration charges of 104% and 92%, respectively.
Nonetheless Rising
International Cellular Subscriptions (2004 to 2024)
The U.S. & Canada had the strongest subscription development in 2024, with the regional whole rising 5% to 472 million.
The Center East was not far behind in development phrases, as subscription numbers climbed 4% to 456 million. Latin America and Oceania noticed annual development of round 2%, whereas Asia, Africa, and Europe registered will increase of 1%.
T-Cellular Trying to Broaden in U.S.
Within the U.S., the cell sector is dominated by three gamers—T-Cellular, Verizon Wi-fi, and AT&T—which had market shares of 35%, 34%, and 27%, respectively as of December 31, 2024.
T-Cellular is seeking to reinforce its dominant place. In Could 2024 the German-owned agency agreed to accumulate “considerably all” of UScellular’s cell operations in a deal valued at $4.4 billion. The transaction will embody UScellular’s cell subscriptions and retail shops, in addition to round 30% of the smaller cellco’s spectrum belongings.
UScellular had round 4.4 million subscriptions on the finish of 2024.
Regulatory approval for the deal’s nonetheless pending, nonetheless, with our bodies together with the Communications Employees of America (CWA) and the Rural Wi-fi Affiliation having known as for the merger to be blocked on competitors grounds.
In response to the CWA’s assertion: “The merger would hurt the general public curiosity by considerably lessening competitors in native markets the place UScellular operates, thereby hurting employees, customers, and different rural carriers.”
Two Big Markets
The U.S. is one in every of solely 4 international locations the place the cell subscription whole stands above 250 million, the others being China, India, and Indonesia.
China and India mixed account for greater than one-third of cell subscriptions worldwide, with totals of 1.8 billion and 1.2 billion, respectively, at end-2024.
Whereas the Chinese language whole elevated by 3% in 2024, India misplaced round 8 million subscriptions over 12 months. The lower was as a consequence of hefty subscription losses at third-placed cellco Vodafone Thought (Vi), which noticed its person base shrink from 223 million to 207 million.
We took a take a look at the Chinese language cell sector in a weblog put up final November, charting the exceptional rise of the biggest operator there, China Cellular.
The cell market in India can also be large. The dominant participant is Reliance Jio Infocomm, which sparked a value warfare when it launched in 2016, providing free connectivity in its first few months of service.
Even after its launch promotions had ended, Jio’s tariffs upended the trade’s pricing construction by offering limitless (VoLTE-based) calls to any Indian community on all of its pre-paid and post-paid plans. Equally, limitless SMS had been additionally integrated within the majority of the cellco’s tariffs.
On the finish of 2024, Jio claimed 40% of India’s cell market, with 465 million subscriptions, forward of Bharti Airtel, which had a 34% share and 385 million subscriptions.
5G Share is Rising
Whereas 4G stays the dominant expertise by way of world subscriptions, with a share of round 55%, 5G now accounts for greater than 1 / 4 of the full.
4G Nonetheless Forward
Cellular Subscriptions by Know-how (December 2024)
Following the launch of the primary LTE networks in 2010, 4G subscriptions reached 5.2 billion on the finish of 2022, up from 5.1 billion a 12 months earlier and 4.8 billion at end-2020. The 12 months 2023 introduced a decline to five.0 billion, nonetheless, as customers turned to extra superior 5G expertise; there was an additional fall to 4.8 billion in 2024.
There have been an estimated 2.3 billion 5G subscriptions on the finish of 2024, up from 1.7 billion a 12 months earlier than and 1.0 billion at end-2022.
2G and 3G are each on the wane, though 2G appears to be proving the extra resilient of the 2, with some operators sustaining 2G for longer to assist M2M connectivity and supply voice protection in areas the place VoLTE will not be current.
The variety of 3G subscriptions globally has been declining since 2015, falling from 1.1 billion in December 2021 to 941 million a 12 months later, 824 million by the top of 2023, and 704 million as of December 2024.
