Clear Power Canada is a clear power suppose tank on the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser College. By way of media briefs, we intention to supply helpful factual and contextual data associated to Canada’s clear power transition. Please use this as a useful resource, and tell us if there are any matters that you just want to see for future media briefs.
A handful of influential B.C.-based organizations and commentators have made claims about B.C.’s power system this previous 12 months that we imagine are misinformed and more likely to mislead British Columbians. To set the document straight, Clear Power Canada is releasing a particular media transient to reply to 4 consequential myths we’ve seen seem time and again.
Declare: Deploying EVs and warmth pumps will overwhelm our power grid, and subsequently governments ought to undo efforts to help EVs and warmth pumps.
Truth: Electrical energy demand for EVs may be very manageable, whereas warmth pumps enormously enhance power effectivity.
- Electrical energy demand for EVs is manageable
- BC Hydro estimates that present EV gross sales necessities will improve electrical energy demand by 2% in 2030, constant with different world forecasts. That is primarily based on 421,000 EVs on the street in 2030 and compliance with the provincial EV gross sales necessities between now and 2030. For comparability, the variety of EVs on the street in B.C. was round 90,000 in 2022.
- A Canadian authorities examine on the anticipated electrical energy wants of EVs discovered that they’d symbolize 3%, 16%, and 22% {of electrical} energy demand in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Because the examine states, “This quantity is critical, however because the development is unfold over 30 years, with most occurring in the course of the 2030 to 2050 timeframe, Canadian utilities have 10 years to refine the load forecast and plan for grid enlargement.”
- A latest U.S. examine by Shopper Studies discovered that even when EVs accounted for 100% of latest automobile gross sales by 2035, it might take till 2050 for nearly all autos on the street to be electrical. Accounting for will increase in kilometers pushed in 2050, if all autos pushed have been electrical, electrical energy demand would want to extend by 26% in comparison with present electrical energy demand, that means that assembly this new electrical energy demand for passenger EVs will solely require about 1% per 12 months development in electrical energy manufacturing, effectively beneath the three.2% common annual development fee for the electrical energy technology over the previous 70 years within the U.S.
- EVs can contribute to grid capability and reliability
- Whereas most present EVs are unidirectional, that means that they solely take energy from the grid, EVs have the power to additionally do the other and enhance grid reliability when they’re used as batteries that utilities can draw from in instances of want.
- In actual fact, there are autos on the market at this time, together with Ford’s F-150 Lightning (prolonged vary) and GM’s Chevrolet Silverado EV First Version RST, which are bidirectional, that means they will each ship and obtain energy to the house (referred to as vehicle-to-home) or to the grid together with a collaborating utility (referred to as vehicle-to-grid).
- The Baltimore Fuel and Electrical Firm already has an working vehicle-to-grid pilot program up and operating in partnership with Ford and Sunrun to ship energy to house owners’ houses throughout peak demand instances in summer time to help Maryland’s energy grid.
- PG&E is providing California prospects underneath their Car-to-All the pieces (V2X) program the alternative to earn incentives by sending electrical energy to the grid from their EVs in instances of peak demand.
- The town of Oakland, California, is changing its 74 college buses to vehicle-to-grid succesful electrical buses that may be capable of present 2.1 GWh again to the grid yearly, sufficient to energy 400 houses for a 12 months.
- Bidirectional charging is anticipated to develop into far more widespread within the coming years. In August 2024, California handed a legislation that provides the California Power Fee the powers to require “any weight class” of battery-electric autos to have vehicle-to-grid charging capabilities.
- Warmth pumps can decrease grid demand
- Warmth pumps use considerably much less electrical energy than electrical baseboard heating, decreasing grid demand and saving cash for the 40% of B.C. households heating their houses this fashion.
- A warmth pump can also be three to 5 instances extra power environment friendly total than a pure gasoline furnace, leading to much less electrical energy demand than some commenters have assumed. In actual fact, a brand new Clear Power Canada report reveals {that a} typical B.C. family dwelling in a indifferent home which transitioned from a pure gasoline furnace to a warmth pump can be anticipated to save lots of $570 a 12 months (together with gear prices and rebates).
- There are extra steps utilities are taking to enhance grid reliability and stability that may cut back future demand
- At the moment, B.C. and Ontario supply time-of-use charges to incent prospects to function home equipment, together with EVs and warmth pumps, throughout off-peak hours to assist stability electrical masses throughout the grid. BC Hydro has an choice to subscribe to a 5 cent per kWh low cost for energy utilization between 11 pm and seven am with a corresponding 5 cent per kWh surcharge between 4 pm and 9 pm. Ontario affords an ultra-low in a single day fee of two.8 cents per kWh between 11 pm and seven am. For distinction, the on-peak fee is 28.6 cents per kWh between 4 pm and 9 pm.
- Evaluation commissioned by Ontario’s Impartial Power System Operator discovered that distributed power sources (DERs), corresponding to good thermostats or utilizing your EV to supply energy to the grid, are capable of fulfill a cloth portion of the province’s power wants, from 1.3 to 4.3 GW of peak summer time demand by 2032.
- Within the coming years, households are set to evolve from power prospects to each prospects and suppliers of electrical energy. We see early indications of this in B.C. with the federal government’s June 2024 announcement of grid-tied family photo voltaic and battery storage incentives.
Declare: Importing electrical energy from different jurisdictions drives up prices and means B.C. can’t meet its personal demand for electrical energy.
Truth: B.C. each imports and exports electrical energy, a follow that retains charges decrease for shoppers.
- B.C. advantages considerably from electrical energy commerce with its neighbours. Importing and exporting electrical energy helps us handle our system in a way that retains charges extra reasonably priced for purchasers. Over the past decade and a half, B.C. was a web importer in seven years and a web exporter within the different eight (together with in the course of the interval from 2019 to 2023).
- With extra of our companions deploying bigger portions of low-cost renewables—and producing a surplus of power at sure instances of the day—B.C. is ready to purchase energy when costs are low, serving to preserve water in our reservoirs for intervals of excessive demand, like in the course of the winter months.
Declare: B.C. doesn’t have sufficient electrical energy to fulfill its local weather commitments.
Truth: BC Hydro has taken numerous steps to make sure it’s bringing on-line the sources it requires.
- In January, BC Hydro introduced its intention to take a position $36 billion over the subsequent 10 years to help the expansion of B.C.’s electrical energy system, a 50% improve in deliberate spending in comparison with 2023.
- Further capability is being introduced on-line by means of Web site C, which will probably be operational in 2025 and add 8% to B.C.’s grid capability. The latest 2024 BC Hydro name for energy will add one other 5% capability to the province’s electrical energy grid, beginning in 2029.
- In September 2024, BC Hydro introduced it had obtained 21 proposals from unbiased energy producers representing 3 times the quantity of electrical energy technology wanted in its name for energy, indicating {that a} sturdy pipeline of initiatives exists in B.C. to fulfill rising demand.
Declare: Renewables like wind and photo voltaic can’t present the dependable energy B.C. wants as electrical energy demand grows.
Truth: Renewables are extraordinarily cost-competitive, work in tandem with different applied sciences, and are already getting used efficiently at scale in different nations.
- Wind and photo voltaic globally are the most cost effective sources of energy. An evaluation from Clear Power Canada discovered that photo voltaic and wind with battery storage are set to provide cheaper electrical energy than pure gasoline in Alberta and Ontario, and this pattern is anticipated to be related for B.C.
- Whereas wind and photo voltaic are variable sources, options are accessible to enhance them, from batteries and dispatchable energy, to stronger grids and interconnections, to technological demand-side measures (i.e. storing and sending energy the place and when it’s wanted). These choices can allow comparatively excessive shares of wind and photo voltaic on a grid.
- A have a look at different nations all over the world affords loads of examples of excessive wind and photo voltaic shares, corresponding to 67% in Denmark, round 40% in Germany and the Netherlands, and 28% in Australia. In a situation the place Canada achieves a net-zero financial system by 2050, wind and photo voltaic can be accountable for under 30% to 40% of required electrical energy manufacturing, lower than some nations produce at this time.
- The state of South Australia–nearly an identical in measurement to B.C. with a smaller inhabitants—noticed 75% of its electrical energy wants met by photo voltaic and wind power in 2023, whereas the state is hoping to realize a 100% renewable-powered grid by 2027.