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Colombia’s EV market is booming.
As I stated a pair months in the past, we’re not solely seeing important YoY (12 months over 12 months) development (as we’re in a number of different markets, together with Costa Rica, Uruguay, Mexico, and Brazil), however we’re additionally taking a look at “bursts” of demand that result in important MoM (month over month) will increase. The latest of those we simply witnessed in October, when almost 1,200 EVs have been bought, over a thousand of them being BEVs.
Having surpassed the psychological barrier of 1,000 BEVs (one thing famous in a number of automotive magazines across the nation), and with a complete market properly beneath 20,000 items a month (18,521 in October), EVs have mainly gotten into the Nice Leagues.
Now, so far as market composition goes, Colombia is bucking the worldwide pattern. The arrival of reasonably priced BEVs and the comparative steep value of PHEVs has led to the latter falling in relative in addition to absolute phrases: whereas in October BEV gross sales grew a formidable 270% YoY, PHEVs fell by 8%; because of this, BEVs made up 90% of the plug-in market final month.
This development implies that solely 4 months after surpassing 5% market share, we discover ourselves over 6%! Particularly, 6.4% (5.8% BEV, 0.6% PHEV).
Now, as you may see from earlier years, November and December are typically constructive months for brand new power autos, and extra in order a veritable tsunami of them is arriving in Bogota’s 2024 Corridor of the Vehicle. Because of this closing the 12 months at 8% and even 10% market share is now a chance!
Market Composition
New and aggressive BEVs and PHEVs are arriving in droves, however the Corridor of the Vehicle opened in November, so the impression of those will solely be identified in a month. For now, the brand new wave of development appears to have been unlocked by the arrival of a few ships filled with BYD Seagull and BYD Yuan Up, the 2 fashions that by far lead this market:
The extra reasonably priced Seagull leads the chart, adopted carefully by the Yuan Up, and in a not-so-distant third place now we have the Kia EV5, a Chinese language-made SUV with a 64 kWh or 88 kWh battery relying on the model. The EV5 has dethroned the Volvo EX30 due to its a lot larger worth for cash: for a mere $1,000 extra ($43,500 vs $44,600), you get a long-range SUV with an enormous battery and way more area. Or you may go for the short-range EV5 ($40,000), save over $3,000, and nonetheless get a a lot bigger battery (the EX30 has a 51 kWh battery, vs a 64 kWh one for the EV5).
Additional down the checklist, I need to concentrate on two fashions. First: the veteran rebranded Stark E-Truck, a 4-ton, last-mile supply truck that’s change into fairly standard within the nation and has been on the coronary heart of Auteco’s technique since its arrival in 2018. If not for the absurd diesel subsidy nonetheless current within the nation, little question this truck could be doing significantly better.
Second: the just lately arrived Equinox EV, which could be bought roughly on the similar value because the Kia EV5 long-range, with a really comparable battery however with AWD. I’ve lengthy stated that the Equinox may very well be a hit in Latin America, and at the same time as competitors grows more durable, I nonetheless imagine that. However for Chevrolet to get gross sales as excessive as Kia’s, it should convey a extra reasonably priced RWD model of this automobile (if near Kia’s 64 kWh EV5 value, it ought to demolish it due to its for much longer vary). Additionally, that is (in all probability) the one EV not made in China in all the prime 10, so props to GM!
Model-wise, BYD completely dominated the market in October, and it truly made it to the highest 10 of most-sold manufacturers within the nation! Beneath it now we have Volvo and Kia finishing the rostrum.
12 months so far, now we have a extra balanced market as a consequence of the truth that the Seagull solely arrived in June, and the Yuan Up in August. Kia is but to surpass the Volvo EX30 (and it in all probability received’t have the ability to within the two months left), so Volvo’s least expensive mannequin completes the rostrum, with the Track Plus in fourth place and the EV5 in fifth.
Model-wise, YTD, now we have BYD nonetheless dominating (although not as absurdly because it did in October), adopted by Volvo and BMW! This podium is prone to maintain, as no mannequin is promoting sufficient to dethrone BMW within the two months left within the 12 months. Kia’s EV5 and Renault’s Kwid E-Tech have put these two manufacturers into fourth and fifth place, whereas the brand new Equinox EV and the now discounted Chevy Bolt allowed Chevrolet to climb to sixth. Beneath, three Chinese language manufacturers compete with Mercedes for a spot within the prime 10.
Most EVs from these manufacturers are made in China … aside from Chevrolet’s*. GM’s model, a lone warrior, is now the only legacy producer standing as much as the Chinese language onslaught on this market. Even the Koreans have seemingly bowed to China’s proficiency (selecting to construct the EV5 there), so GM clearly has one thing good happening for it, and I actually hope its advances are usually not wrecked by the approaching US administration.
*I’m but to find out whether or not all Mercedes and Volvo EVs are in-built China, or if some come from Europe. My instinct tells me most if not all are Chinese language.
The Coming Tsunami
We’re amidst Bogota’s Corridor of the Vehicle, and, frankly, I’m a bit overwhelmed by the variety of arrivals. For years, I’ve identified and adopted each single BEV arriving on this nation, however the final couple of weeks I’m feeling that will now not be achievable.
Arrivals begin from $10,300 — the 13.5 kWh ultra-cute “Pony” FAW Bestune Xiaoma — and embody the Zeekr X and 001, the Deepal S05 and S07, the Chery EQ7, the Kia EV3 and EV4, the BYD Sea Lion, the BMW iX M60, the Audi Q6, the Blazer EV, the Porsche Macan EV, the ORA 04, and the GAC Aion ES and Aion Y. I could also be lacking some, and that is solely BEVs (I now not hope to maintain up with PHEVs).
A notable point out goes out to the 55kWh GAC Aion ES, a Mannequin 3 sized sedan arriving at a mere $21,800! That is what we’re speaking about after we ask for affordability! No fossil-fueled sedan of an analogous measurement could be bought on this nation for such a low price: the age of EVs being cheaper than ICEVs has begun.
Lastly, the favored phase of midsized SUVs appears to be saturated, and lots of the new arrivals will likely be preventing in opposition to equally priced ICEV affords. We’ll see how they fare.
Last Ideas
With the brand new arrivals, many segments at the moment are coated with BEVs at comparable costs to their ICEV competitors. Nevertheless, two crucial segments for this market stay uncovered: entry-level SUVs, and small sedans (~4.2m). You will get a good, no-frills-added SUV for $20,500 and a small sedan from $13,800: EVs aren’t remotely shut to those numbers for now. It’s additionally value mentioning town automotive phase, which, though properly served by a number of EV fashions, continues to be far too costly and — save for the Seagull — far too vary restricted to compete efficiently with its ICEV competitors.
However within the extra premium segments, EVs are already successfully at value parity. The trail now goes via model recognition and creating confidence within the shopper: this may occasionally take some time, however with the benefits EVs have in massive cities, it needs to be achievable within the medium time period.
Speedy-charging stations are popping up right here and there, and just lately the fourth of them opened between Bogota and Santa Marta, lastly permitting EVs to “go to the coast,” which is the stereotypical journey for a Colombian middle-class trip. The variety of stalls continues to be restricted, however I haven’t but heard of strains or lengthy ready occasions: as the full variety of BEVs within the nation stays underneath 20,000, maybe not a lot of them are wanted but.
As EV costs fall, count on EV adoption to extend. At this level, I’m beginning to see the occasional EV even in much less rich elements of Bogota, and a number of other manufacturers are working to increase via mid-sized and small cities. I don’t know how briskly this will likely be, but when the pricing pattern continues, we may properly have cheaper EVs in each phase in a few years … and that may certainly be a troublesome time for ICEV Legacy Auto.
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