By Vitality Innovation’s Modeling and Evaluation Group
The free and open-source Vitality Coverage Simulator (EPS) laptop mannequin developed by Vitality Innovation has change into probably the most broadly used instruments to tell policymakers and regulators about which local weather and power insurance policies will scale back greenhouse fuel emissions most successfully whereas creating the most important financial and public well being advantages.
With EPS fashions now obtainable for dozens of nations and subnational areas, together with 48 U.S. states, we’re usually requested how the EPS works and what peer overview it has undergone by way of its improvement.
The EPS is a System Dynamics laptop mannequin created in Vensim, a instrument produced by Ventana Methods for the creation and simulation of System Dynamics fashions. The mannequin will be run through the free Vensim Mannequin Reader or by way of an internet interface Vitality Innovation developed. Instructions on acquiring Vensim Mannequin Reader and the EPS can be found on the Obtain and Set up web page and customers can entry the mannequin on-line through the energypolicy.options web site.
Customers can entry superior options or modify enter information by downloading the EPS and operating it domestically on their Mac or Home windows PC. All enter information is meticulously cited, publicly obtainable, and freely accessible and editable. Customers can run the mannequin in Vensim Mannequin Reader and immediately see how adjustments in enter assumptions change the mannequin’s outputs.
The EPS is an economy-wide, single area mannequin that runs in annual time steps. It may be configured to run to 2100, although it’s most frequently configured to run to 2050. The EPS contains bottom-up inventory turnover monitoring in a number of sectors and a profit-maximizing least-cost optimized electrical energy mannequin, together with 24 hours throughout six totally different time slices. It additionally has native value minimization for sure sectors and applied sciences, for instance it selects the bottom value combine of latest autos offered in a given 12 months primarily based on demand for brand new autos.
The EPS is designed to mannequin dozens of insurance policies affecting power use and emissions. The mannequin first builds a business-as-usual case primarily based on enter information and present insurance policies. From there, the EPS permits customers to mannequin any mixture of included insurance policies and to customise the coverage stringency and timelines of these insurance policies. These insurance policies embrace, for instance:
- Renewable portfolio requirements or clear power requirements
- Gas financial system requirements for autos
- Zero emissions automobile requirements and incentives
- Business methane requirements
- Incentives for clear power applied sciences like these within the Inflation Discount Act
- Accelerated R&D development of assorted applied sciences
The EPS options an embedded downstream input-output mannequin that interprets adjustments in spending from coverage to adjustments in financial outcomes, comparable to jobs, GDP, and employee wages. Modifications in demand for companies and items that consequence from macroeconomic adjustments are fed again into the mannequin on a one-year time delay, permitting the mannequin to regulate power demand and emissions primarily based on the financial system’s evolution.
The EPS additionally features a simplified downstream well being module that interprets adjustments in health-damaging pollution into adjustments in well being outcomes. The well being module depends on benefit-per-ton estimates from U.S. Environmental Safety Company modeling and follows normal practices for changing adjustments in emissions to adjustments in well being outcomes.
Vitality Coverage Simulator U.S. NDC coverage package deal results CO2e wedge diagram
Hundreds of outputs can be found within the mannequin, however some key metrics embrace:
- Emissions of 12 totally different pollution together with carbon dioxide, methane, N2O, fluorinated gases, NOx, SOx, PM2.5, PM10, black carbon, natural carbon, carbon monoxide and risky natural compounds.
- Modifications in spending on capital, gas, upkeep, taxes and subsidies.
- Direct, oblique, and induced impacts on jobs, GDP, and worker compensation as a complete or disaggregated into 42 sectors.
- Untimely mortality and 10 different prevented health-related outcomes from decreased main and secondary particulate air pollution.
- Detailed electrical energy sector data together with hourly demand and provide, technology, capability, and retail electrical energy charges.
- Gross sales and inventory of various autos and automobile applied sciences, comparable to battery electrical, plug-in hybrid electrical, hydrogen gas cell, and gas-powered autos.
- Vitality utilized by totally different companies and applied sciences throughout the financial system, damaged down by gas kind
- Breakdowns of how every coverage inside a coverage package deal contributes to whole abatement and the cost-effectiveness of every coverage (e.g., wedge diagrams and price curves).
- Gas imports and exports, and related expenditures or revenues.
- Detailed accounting of power utilized by 25 totally different trade sectors, together with development and agriculture, finish use (e.g., boiler, low/medium/excessive temperature warmth, machine drive) and gas kind.
Core methodologies and buildings within the EPS have undergone in depth peer overview as they had been developed, and we frequently search enter from exterior consultants to change the methodologies and handle considerations which are raised. Elements of the mannequin have been reviewed by people from prestigious establishments together with:
- American Council for an Vitality-Environment friendly Economic system
- Argonne Nationwide Laboratory
- Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory
- Massachusetts Institute of Know-how
- Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory
- RMI
- Stanford College
- Tufts College
- College of Chicago
- U.S. Environmental Safety Company
- World Sources Institute
Nationwide labs, universities, and companions who’ve peer reviewed the Vitality Coverage Simulator